Back-to-School Spending: Does Consumer Sentiment Make The Grade?

Back-to-school shopping lists are more than a seasonal ritual; they're also a real-time read on how households are weighing two competing forces this year: the squeeze of inflation and the lift of a strong market. 

While estimates for back-to-school shopping are wide-ranging, at WHZ we’re optimistic that spending will increase again this year. Most consumers are employed, and stocks have been in a bull market for almost four years. School goods aren’t immune from inflation, which will make this year’s purchases more expensive, but sales should attract buyers. Judged by Amazon’s Prime Day, consumers are ready to spend, especially when there’s a bargain to be had. Prime Day sales, which ran from June 23 to June 26, rose 9.3%, according to data from Adobe. 

A National Retail Federation (NRF) survey found that consumers plan to spend a record $43.3 billion on back-to-school goods for those in grade school, a 9.9% increase from last year and surpassing the prior high of $41.5 billion in 2023. Spending is expected to increase on shoes, school supplies, and electronics. Spending on college students is expected to be even stronger, rising 16.6% to a record $103.5 billion, with strong spending on electronics, dorm décor, and clothing. 

The new twist in back-to-school shopping this year: artificial intelligence. We’ll be watching to see how this new tech tool helps parents track down all the items on their kids’ wish lists. 

Back to School Means Shopping. But Will Spending Measure Up? 

Now that the dog days of summer are in the rearview mirror and kids are returning to school, it’s time to go shopping for sneakers that fit and crayons that are sharpened. In recent years, back-to-school shopping has been spread over more weeks as families take advantage of sales. 

Early birds tap into Amazon’s Prime Day shopping specials in June, and procrastinators race to the stores in late August or early September. Estimates for back-to-school shopping run the gamut—from down 17% to up 10%. We’re optimistic that spending will be relatively strong because unemployment is low and Amazon’s Prime Day sales were strong in June. 

Let’s take a look at what may influence this year’s back-to-school shopping season. 

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Survey says: More Spending This Year

 A National Retail Federation (NRF) survey found that consumers plan to spend a record $43.3 billion on back-to-school goods for those in grade school, a 9.9% increase from last year and surpassing the prior high of $41.5 billion in 2023. Spending is expected to increase on shoes, school supplies, and electronics. Spending on college students is expected to be even stronger, rising 16.6% to a record $103.5 billion, with strong spending on electronics, dorm décor, and clothing. 

Not everyone is optimistic. A NerdWallet back-to-school survey found that shoppers plan to spend 17.5% less this year vs last year. A quarter of respondents said they plan to pull back because higher costs of living have squeezed budgets, and 62% plan to seek out sales, up from 52% last year. A Deloitte survey found consumers plan to spend the same amount this year as they did in 2025. 

The divergent results may be due to the survey respondents’ income levels. JLL’s survey found that back-to-school budgets rose by an average of 11.7% this year, but those earning less than $50,000 plan to increase spending by only 3.8%, while those earning between $50,000 and $150,000 plan to boost spending by 20.7%, and those with even higher incomes expect to spend 14.4% more this year. 

Reason to Stay Optimistic

We expect back-to-school spending to be robust because sales rose 9.3% during Amazon Prime Day, which ran from June 23 to June 26, according to data from Adobe. Amazon has successfully turned its annual sale into a major event, with $26.4 billion spent over the four days. That rivals the $32.5 billion spent from Black Friday through Cyber Monday last year. Amazon’s impressive Prime Day results are even more impressive now that Walmart and Target have launched their own competing sales events. 

We’re hopeful consumers will continue shopping because the job market remains healthy. With the July unemployment rate at only 4.1%, the vast majority of consumers are pulling in a paycheck. Meanwhile, consumers who invested in the stock market are sitting on multiple years of strong gains. 

We’re certainly mindful of the impact of inflation, which continues to run north of 3%.  With prices rising broadly, it’s tough for some families to stretch their incomes. Looking for sales will no doubt be part of the back-to-school shopping equation. 

This year artificial intelligence (AI) may play a role in helping families stay within their budgets. Seventy-three percent of parents surveyed by PwC said they plan to use AI to help research, compare, budget, or find deals.  We’ll be watching to see how this new tech tool helps parents track down all the items on their kids’ wish lists. 

We’re also here to help you keep your financial plan and portfolio on track through all of the economic and market ups and downs. As your financial planner and wealth manager, we’ll work to provide you with personalized and comprehensive financial strategy designed to give you “Absolute Confidence. Unwavering Partnership. For Life.” Set up an introductory meeting now, or call us at (860) 928-2341.

Authored by James Zahansky, AWMA®. AI may have been used in the research and initial drafting of this piece. Securities and advisory services offered through Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC, a Registered Investment Adviser. 697 Pomfret Street, Pomfret Center, CT 06259 and 392-A Merrow Road, Tolland, CT 06084, 860.928.2341. www.whzwealth.com. These materials are general in nature and do not address your specific situation. For your specific investment needs, please discuss your individual circumstances with your financial advisor. WHZ Strategic Wealth Advisors does not provide tax or legal advice, and nothing in the accompanying pages should be construed as specific tax or legal advice.

RELATED FAQs 

How much are consumers expected to spend on back-to-school shopping this year? 

The National Retail Federation projects a record $43.3 billion in K-12 back-to-school spending, a 9.9% increase over last year and above the previous high of $41.5 billion set in 2023. College-related spending is expected to be even stronger, rising 16.6% to a record $103.5 billion.

Why are some surveys predicting lower back-to-school spending? 

Results vary by survey and income level. NerdWallet found shoppers planning to spend 17.5% less this year, with a quarter citing a higher cost of living. Deloitte's survey found spending roughly flat versus 2025. JLL's data shows the divide is largely income-driven: households earning under $50,000 plan to increase spending by just 3.8%, while those earning $50,000–$150,000 plan to spend 20.7% more.

What does Amazon Prime Day tell us about back-to-school shopping trends? 

Prime Day (June 23–26) is an early indicator of shopper willingness to spend. According to Adobe, Prime Day sales rose 9.3% year-over-year to $26.4 billion over four days — a figure that rivals the $32.5 billion spent during last year's Black Friday–Cyber Monday weekend, even with Walmart and Target running competing sales events of their own.

What economic factors are supporting back-to-school spending this year? 

Two main tailwinds: a healthy job market, with July unemployment at just 4.1%, and nearly four years of stock market gains benefiting investors. Inflation remains a headwind, running above 3%, which is pushing more shoppers to seek out sales.

How is AI changing back-to-school shopping in 2026? 

AI is playing a growing role in how families shop. A PwC survey found that 73% of parents plan to use AI tools to research products, compare prices, set budgets, or find deals while shopping for back-to-school items.